South Korea should try winning China to its side in wake of North-Russia summit, experts say

Experts and other dignitaries, including Hong Seok-kyun, chairman of JoongAng Holdings and the Korea Peace Foundation, seventh from left, pose for a photo during a forum hosted by the foundation on Friday. [JANG JIN-YOUNG]

Experts at a forum in Seoul suggested steering China toward South Korea's side as North Korea and Russia strengthen military ties with their recently signed comprehensive strategic partnership.

The implication is that South Korea should take advantage of China's desire to compete with the United States while acting as a responsible member of the international community.

Participants in a forum hosted by the Korea Peace Foundation on Friday discussed the situation on the Korean Peninsula after the Pyongyang-Moscow summit.

“There is currently a challenge to the U.S.-led liberal order, and the outcome of the confrontation between the North Korea-China-Russia-Iran camp and the democratic coalition centered on the United States is very important to Korea,” said Yoon Young-kwan, former minister of foreign affairs.

“Nevertheless, fortunately, Russia does not seem to have given up on diplomacy with South Korea,” said Yoon. “Moscow continues to convey that the treaty with Pyongyang does not target Seoul. From Russia’s perspective, there is a need to emphasize economic cooperation with South Korea more than with North Korea.”

Yoon further stressed the need to examine whether North Korea, Russia and China are actually moving together as one. If China wants to establish a multipolar system that counters the unipolar world order centered on the United States, it must attract South Korea, Japan and Europe to its side, Yoon said.

The fundamental difference between North Korea-Russia and China is that Beijing will not give up its role as a responsible actor on the international stage, according to Yoon. Distancing itself from Pyongyang and Moscow, Beijing will try to prevent a situation where the United States strengthens its military activities near the Korean Peninsula or the Western Pacific.

“If utilizing dynamic relationships is the basis of diplomacy, South Korea should be able to take advantage of the gap between North Korea and Russia, on the one hand, and China on the other and strengthen communication with the latter,” Yoon said.

“The country that benefited the most from the war between Russia and Ukraine was China,” said Lee Hyuk, former ambassador to Vietnam. “To gain the upper hand in the competition with Washington, Beijing has to target the Western world, and not joining the so-called ‘axis of evil’ of Pyongyang and Moscow is a strength.”

However, doubts were also expressed during the forum on whether South Korea could draw in China.

“It is true that cooperation between China and Russia has become weak and that China is trying to manage its image by drawing a line with Russia, but to say that Beijing could be easily swayed may be wishful thinking when South Korea has practically neglected relations with China in recent years,” said Moon Heung-ho, professor emeritus of Chinese Studies at Hanyang University.

“China is trying to avoid a structure of South Korea-United States-Japan versus North Korea-Russia-China,” said Kang Jun-young, professor of Chinese politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. “Seoul must discuss North Korean issues in earnest with Beijing.”

The forum further addressed whether the closer relationship between North Korea and Russia is temporary or something to be dealt with in the long term.

“For Russia, once the war in Ukraine ends, North Korea’s value is bound to fall,” said Andrei Lankov, professor of international relations at Kookmin University. “Economic exchanges have failed over the past 40 years due to a lack of compatibility between the two countries’ economic structures. If you look closely at its relationship with China, there are also many conflicts and contradictions. On the other hand, South Korea is an important partner for Russia in terms of economy and soft power.”

However, other experts were skeptical of the “vague hope” that Seoul-Moscow relations would improve once the war in Ukraine ended. Former Ambassador to Russia Lee Seok-bae said that “South Korea-Russia relations are inevitably linked to U.S.-Russia relations,” with U.S. sanctions against Russia continuing.

“North Korea’s strategic value to Russia may not quickly diminish,” said Lee.

Experts at the forum also cautioned while the new treaty and deepened relations between Pyongyang and Moscow are something to monitor, Seoul must remain sober and not respond “oversensitively.”

“We should note that the closeness between North Korea and Russia did not significantly impact exchange rates or stock prices,” said Ji Man-soo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute of Finance. “Perhaps the market believes recent developments actually strengthen stability. There is no need for Seoul’s response to increase uncertainty.”

“The Cold War and the so-called new Cold War are completely different,” said Park Hong-gyu, professor of international studies at Korea University. “There was a tense, confrontational structure during the Cold War, but now there is a lot of space in between. There are also large areas where South Korea can enjoy autonomy. In times like this, there is a need to strike a careful balance rather than react in a one-shot manner.”

Strengthened relations between Pyongyang and Moscow may instead act as a deterrent to war, some experts argued.

“As South Korea and the United States strengthen their extended deterrence, North Korea appears to be seeking a balance of fear,” said Koh Yoo-hwan, professor emeritus of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. “This cannot necessarily be said to be negative for stabilization of the Korean Peninsula, since the treaty can prevent a major war in which the United States, China and Russia clash.”

Participants in the forum agreed that South Korean diplomacy should overcome partisan politics and strive for long-term consistency.

“South Korean diplomacy has been so inconsistent that we could not foresee even the next 10 years,” said Woo Yoon-keun, former ambassador to Russia. “Our foreign policy has changed quickly depending on the administration. At the very least, there is a need for a structure of political agreement in which inter-Korean relations and diplomacy with the four big powers can remain consistent for 10 or 20 years.”

BY LEE KEUN-PYUNG, LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]