Don’t fear the seismic changes from AI

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Don’t fear the seismic changes from AI

Published: 02 Oct. 2024, 19:39

Yeom Jae-ho
The author is the president of Taejae University and vice chair of the Presidential Committee on AI.

Stressful movements in tectonic plates trigger seismic activities like earthquakes to cause massive changes in the landscape. Epoch-making evolution in the geology of humanity is under progress. Artificial intelligence that had been explored over the past seven decades has seeped into quotidian life through the launch of the generative language model ChatGPT 3.5 last November. The updated series GPT 4.0 followed four months later and more recently, GPT-4o — the multimodal model incorporating integration of text, vision and audio capabilities for a conversational AI experience — was released into the market.

Along with OpenAI — the GPT series creator — big tech behemoths like Google, Amazon and Meta are all investing heavily in AI, empowering Nvidia, which enjoys the near monopoly in graphic processing units for big-data processing for AI machines. SK hynix was able to beat the chip downcycle by winning high-bandwidth memory supplies for Nvidia chips. Open AI’s revenue is expected to surge from last year’s $1.6 billion to $3.7 billion this year and may reach $100 billion by 2029.

AI became the buzzword because of its capacity to revolutionize civilization. AI is not just capable of substituting much of human labor, but also can open the closed books for humanity once it surpasses human intelligence. AI can learn 24/7. Once it familiarizes itself with the playbook, it runs through unending repetition until it arrives at unbelievable discoveries and skills to apply to its tasks.

AlphaGo in the DeepMind challenge match eight years ago was able to beat human Go champion Lee Se-dol by studying the techniques of masters and the library of Go. AI programs these days study one another. The new ones can crush AlphaGo. Lee declared AIs are now at the top in the game of Go. He expects the game will enter a new level as newcomers learn Go through AI tutors instead of human teachers and masters.

In his 2005 book “The Singularity is Near,” futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that machines will be able to surpass human intelligence by 2045 to bring to the singularity in intelligence. In the book “Homo Deus” (2015), Yuval Noah Harari envisioned humans internalizing AI to become the godlike Homo Deus by 2050.

Kurzweil has been a leading inventor and developer of AI for 61 years. He is likened to Thomas Edison for his rich discoveries. At the same time, Kurzweil has been the most reliable foreseer of the future in the last 30 years. In his latest update “The Singularity is Nearer” published in June, he predicted the turning point of the machine surpassing the human brain will be 2029, far quicker than 2045.

The discovery of the printing press by German goldsmith Johannes Gutenberg gave rise to masses of books and sharply reduced illiteracy across Europe. The literacy rate in Italy in 1455, when the printing method was discovered, was 10 percent for men and 2 percent for women. The invention of the printing machine helped pull Europe out of the Dark Medieval Ages and ushered mankind into the Enlightenment through the propagation of knowledge.

The printing machine became a butterfly flapping its wings to spread knowledge through publications. The Bible, restricted to pastors who read Latin, became accessible to the masses through translation into German by Protestant reformer Martin Luther. The spread of knowledge brought forth religious reform as well as the civilian, science and technology and industrial revolutions to help the human civilization leap in progress.

Kurzweil believes that AI will become the next butterfly whose wing-flapping can cause hurricane-like changes in humanity. For instance, the marriage and embedding of AI software can sharply reduce human work hours, crime and poverty rates, and energy charging and computing costs, as well as accelerate the improvements in income per hour, education and democracy. The AI-driven 3D printing technology will help the mass-production system move toward more consumer-oriented customized manufacturing. AI-incorporated farming will reduce labor and enhance productivity. AI also can revolutionize medicine through precision diagnosis, breakthrough drug developments, robotic surgeries and nanobot employment to lengthen human lives. People will become freer from labor through less work and universal income to live in a self-fulfilling manner.

Carriages carrying citizens in colorful bonnets for the traditional New York Easter Parade in 1900 were replaced by motor vehicles 13 years later. Automobiles that numbered 1 million in 1920 surged to 29 million within nine years. The loss of the profession of coachmen was soon offset by many more chauffeurs. We need not fear the seismic changes in human professions and jobs due to AI.

Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.