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What impact Hurricanes can have on elections

Published: 13 Oct. 2024, 19:42

KIM HYOUNG-GU
The author is the Washington bureau chief of the JoongAng Ilbo.

When a major disaster strikes, the real power of the government is revealed. The response capability of a government to a disaster or an accident before an election becomes an important measure for voters.

In the United States, Hurricane Katrina hit the mainland in August 2005 and left at least 1,380 people dead or missing. The George W. Bush administration was crushed in the midterm election for the Senate and the House after flaws in its response and damage control preparedness were disclosed. In contrast, when Hurricane Sandy struck a week before the 2012 presidential election, President Barack Obama succeeded in his re-election by absorbing swing votes by highlighting his image as the leader of a command center as he led emergency meetings and visited disaster sites with Chris Christie, then-Republican governor of New Jersey.

Following Hurricane Helene, which swept through the southeast — including two key swing states North Carolina and Georgia — two weeks ago, Hurricane Milton barreled through southern Florida. The series of disasters before the Nov. 5 presidential election could become the “October surprise.”

Coincidentally, many of the affected areas are Republican strongholds. Former President Donald Trump seems to be taking advantage of the disaster to criticize and attack the Biden administration. He criticized that the federal government and the Democratic governor of North Carolina didn’t want to help people in Republican states. He also claimed that Harris spent $1 billion of FEMA funding on housing for illegal immigrants. He didn’t provide any evidence. Some far right figures are spreading a conspiracy theory that the government is manipulating the course of the hurricanes to cause concentrated damages on the Republican areas.

Such attacks don’t seem to work well. The Charlotte Observer, a leading newspaper in North Carolina, recently criticized Trump in its editorial that he was spreading lies and conspiracy theories to politically exploit the situation. It warned that the disaster was not an opportunity for election campaigns.

When an election is imminent, voters’ sentiments are as calm as the eye of a typhoon. But after a hurricane, there are scars, and when the election is over, the candidates will realize how fierce public sentiment had been. American voters are quietly yet thoroughly watching how Biden and Harris are responding to the disasters and whether Trump was fair to weaponize them for political gains. The outcome will soon be revealed when the ballots are opened next month.