Crucial Korea-China relations in limbo
Published: 07 Oct. 2024, 19:43
The author is the head of the China Institute of the JoongAng Ilbo and CEO of China Lab.
On Oct. 1, Shigeru Ishiba became Japan’s new prime minister. His predecessor Fumio Kishida served for nearly three years. During his term, Kishida never visited China. It can be interpreted that the China-Japan relations were not so comfortable. The U.S.-China relationship is also lukewarm. It is unlikely that U.S. President Joe Biden would visit China during his term. After the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5, a new president will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025, and it is not likely that Biden would visit China in the meantime.
What about Korea? Since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1992, all former presidents since Roh Tae-woo visited China. Except for Kim Young-sam, who visited China a year after the inauguration, all others — Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in — visited China in their first year. They all must have determined that relations with China are important. What about President Yoon Suk Yeol? Half of his term will have passed by November, but there is no talk of visiting China. It is generally believed in Korea that Chinese President Xi Jinping should visit Korea first.
They argue that since President Moon visited China twice, it is Xi’s turn to come. It seems that the administration is trying to arrange Xi’s visit for the APEC summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang, in November 2025. Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul met and discussed with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi when they went to the United States to attend the UN General Assembly on Sept. 28. If Xi comes to Korea in November 2025, there’s a possibility that Yoon’s visit to China could happen sometime in 2026.
As the Korea-Japan-China trilateral summit is scheduled to be held in China that year, Yoon may visit China for the occasion. However, the trilateral summit is influenced by many factors. The annual summit was held in Seoul this year — five years after four years of stalemate. In the ever-changing international situation, there’s no guarantee that they will meet in Japan next year and in China the year after. In 2026, Korea will be in the presidential election season. Even if Yoon visits China that year at the end of his term, he can’t bring any impact to the Korea-China cooperation.
It is highly likely that China will not be enthusiastic about inviting Yoon. Yoon is likely to follow the footsteps of Kishida and Biden. What are state visits and summits for? They are to bring momentum to resolve major issues between the leaders of the countries. If things proceed like the aforementioned scenario, it is possible that the Korea-China relationship will be not just lukewarm but also cold during the remainder of Yoon’s presidency.
When Korea’s relationship with China is important both for the economy and security, it is questionable whether it is okay to let the bilateral relations go like this.
with the Korea JoongAng Daily
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